{"id":1415,"date":"2025-05-04T14:57:56","date_gmt":"2025-05-04T12:57:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/?p=1415"},"modified":"2025-05-12T10:47:53","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T08:47:53","slug":"ket-forgatokonyv-keszult-az-orosz-gazdasag-jovojere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/?p=1415","title":{"rendered":"K\u00e9t forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv k\u00e9sz\u00fclt az orosz gazdas\u00e1g j\u00f6v\u0151j\u00e9r\u0151l"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az orosz gazdas\u00e1gi miniszt\u00e9rium k\u00e9tf\u00e9le k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st mutatott be a 2026\u20132028-as id\u0151szakra: egy optimist\u00e1bb, \u201eb\u00e1zis\u201d verzi\u00f3t \u00e9s egy \u201ekonzervat\u00edv\u201d v\u00e1ltozatot, amely a k\u00fcls\u0151 sokkok er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9t, az olaj\u00e1rak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t \u00e9s a bels\u0151 alkalmazkod\u00e1s neh\u00e9zs\u00e9geit is figyelembe veszi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A b\u00e1zisforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv: lassul\u00e1s, de stabil n\u00f6veked\u00e9s<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A miniszt\u00e9rium 2025-re 2,5%-os GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9st v\u00e1r, az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 7,6% lehet, m\u00edg az \u00e9ves \u00e1tlagos rubel\u00e1rfolyam 94,3 rubel\/doll\u00e1r szintre gyeng\u00fcl.<\/strong> Ez \u00e9rezhet\u0151 visszal\u00e9p\u00e9s a 2024-es \u00e9vhez k\u00e9pest, amikor a GDP 4,3%-kal b\u0151v\u00fclt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2026-ban a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s 2,4%, 2027-ben 2,8%, 2028-ban 3% lehet.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A bels\u0151 kereslet n\u00f6veked\u00e9se m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151dik: a kiskereskedelmi forgalom, a fizet\u0151s szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok \u00e9s a vend\u00e9gl\u00e1t\u00e1s egy\u00fcttes b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9se <strong>5,9%-ra cs\u00f6kken<\/strong> a 2024-es <strong>6,4%-r\u00f3l<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ipari termel\u00e9s n\u00f6veked\u00e9se is lassul: <strong>2025-ben 2,6% lehet, szemben a 2024-es 4,6%-kal<\/strong>. Az beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9se <strong>1,7%-ra esik vissza<\/strong> az el\u0151z\u0151 \u00e9vi <strong>7,4%-r\u00f3l<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 <strong>2026-ra 4%-ra<\/strong> m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151dhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Az export szerkezete \u00e1talakul<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A gazdas\u00e1gi miniszt\u00e9rium tov\u00e1bbi keleti nyit\u00e1st v\u00e1r a k\u00fclkereskedelemben<\/strong>, azaz a \u201esemleges \u00e9s bar\u00e1ti\u201d orsz\u00e1gokkal val\u00f3 kapcsolatok b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A <strong>k\u0151olaj- \u00e9s f\u00f6ldg\u00e1zexport volumene 2025-ben 1,3%-kal cs\u00f6kkenhet<\/strong>, miut\u00e1n 2024-ben m\u00e9g <strong>2,9%-os n\u00f6veked\u00e9st<\/strong> mutatott. Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s szerint <strong>a Brent hord\u00f3nk\u00e9nti \u00e1tlag\u00e1ra 68 doll\u00e1r<\/strong>, m\u00edg az orosz Urals \u00e1tlag\u00e1ra <strong>56 doll\u00e1r lehet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ezzel szemben <strong>a nem energiahordoz\u00f3 t\u00edpus\u00fa export 2025-ben 6,1%-kal n\u0151het<\/strong>, jelent\u0151sen gyorsabban, mint a 2024-es <strong>2,1%-os \u00fctem<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A rubel fokozatos gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9se v\u00e1rhat\u00f3<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A b\u00e1zisforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint <strong>a rubel \u00e1rfolyama 2025-ben 94,3 rubel\/doll\u00e1r<\/strong> k\u00f6r\u00fcl alakul, de a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben <strong>tov\u00e1bbi gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9s k\u00f6vetkezhet be<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026-ban: <strong>100,2 rubel\/doll\u00e1r<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2027-ben: <strong>103,5 rubel\/doll\u00e1r<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2028-ban: <strong>106 rubel\/doll\u00e1r<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A konzervat\u00edv verzi\u00f3: gyeng\u00e9bb n\u00f6veked\u00e9s \u00e9s nagyobb infl\u00e1ci\u00f3<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A konzervat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv 2025-re csup\u00e1n 1,8%-os GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9ssel sz\u00e1mol<\/strong>, 2026-ban pedig <strong>csak 1,2%-kal<\/strong>. Ezt k\u00f6vet\u0151en fokozatos javul\u00e1s j\u00f6het: <strong>2027-ben 2,3%, 2028-ban 2,9% lehet a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s a <strong>Brent olajat 58,1 doll\u00e1r\/hord\u00f3, az Urals fajt\u00e1t 48,8 doll\u00e1r\/hord\u00f3 \u00e1ron<\/strong> veszi alapul. A <strong>gyeng\u00e9bb export miatt a rubel m\u00e9g er\u0151sebben gyeng\u00fclhet, 2025-ben \u00e1tlagosan 96,6 rubel\/doll\u00e1r<\/strong> szintig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 2025-ben 8,2% lehet<\/strong>, ami hosszabb ideig fenntartott szigor\u00fa monet\u00e1ris politik\u00e1t jelenthet, ez pedig <strong>visszafogja a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sokat \u00e9s a fogyaszt\u00e1st<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ipari termel\u00e9s n\u00f6veked\u00e9se <strong>2%-ra<\/strong>, az beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9se <strong>0,8%-ra<\/strong> m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151dhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bels\u0151 \u00e9s k\u00fcls\u0151 kock\u00e1zatok a n\u00f6veked\u00e9sre n\u00e9zve<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A b\u00e1zisforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet sz\u00e1mos <strong>hazai \u00e9s nemzetk\u00f6zi kock\u00e1zat<\/strong> fenyegeti:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>a kereslet\u2013k\u00edn\u00e1lat egyens\u00faly\u00e1nak megboml\u00e1sa<\/strong>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>az import t\u00falzott n\u00f6veked\u00e9se azokban a szektorokban, ahol hazai gy\u00e1rt\u00e1s is lehets\u00e9ges lenne<\/strong>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>a monet\u00e1ris enyh\u00edt\u00e9s elhalaszt\u00e1sa<\/strong>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>az USA \u00e9s K\u00edna k\u00f6zti kereskedelmi fesz\u00fclts\u00e9gek elm\u00e9ly\u00fcl\u00e9se<\/strong>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>a k\u00ednai gazdas\u00e1g lassul\u00e1sa<\/strong>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>az Oroszorsz\u00e1g elleni szankci\u00f3k s\u00falyosbod\u00e1sa<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A <strong>konzervat\u00edv verzi\u00f3<\/strong> ezek megval\u00f3sul\u00e1s\u00e1val sz\u00e1mol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Megjegyz\u00e9s a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hat\u00e1sokra<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kommersant.ru\/doc\/7694492?from=main\" title=\"\">Kommerszant <\/a>elemz\u0151i szerint<\/strong> a forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek fontos alapj\u00e1t k\u00e9pezik majd <strong>a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 h\u00e1rom\u00e9ves k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si ciklus param\u00e9tereinek<\/strong>. A miniszt\u00e9rium el\u0151rejelz\u00e9seit a korm\u00e1ny is j\u00f3v\u00e1hagyta, \u00edgy ezek a sz\u00e1mok nemcsak elm\u00e9leti ir\u00e1nymutat\u00e1sk\u00e9nt, hanem <strong>a gazdas\u00e1gpolitika t\u00e9nyleges kiindul\u00f3pontjak\u00e9nt<\/strong> szolg\u00e1lnak a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 id\u0151szakban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az orosz gazdas\u00e1gi miniszt\u00e9rium k\u00e9tf\u00e9le k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st mutatott be a 2026\u20132028-as id\u0151szakra: egy optimist\u00e1bb, \u201eb\u00e1zis\u201d verzi\u00f3t \u00e9s egy \u201ekonzervat\u00edv\u201d v\u00e1ltozatot, amely a k\u00fcls\u0151 sokkok er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9t, az olaj\u00e1rak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t \u00e9s a bels\u0151 alkalmazkod\u00e1s neh\u00e9zs\u00e9geit is figyelembe veszi. A b\u00e1zisforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv: lassul\u00e1s, de stabil n\u00f6veked\u00e9s A miniszt\u00e9rium 2025-re 2,5%-os GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9st v\u00e1r, az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 7,6% lehet, m\u00edg az \u00e9ves [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[2454],"tags":[692,498,371,816,266,322,334,541,96,46,48],"class_list":["post-1415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kategoria-nelkuli-hu","tag-foldgaz","tag-gazdasagi-novekedes","tag-haboru","tag-keleti-nyitas","tag-kulkereskedelem","tag-moszkva","tag-nemzetgazdasag","tag-olajipar","tag-orosz-ukran-haboru","tag-oroszorszag","tag-szankciok"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1415","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1415"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1418,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1415\/revisions\/1418"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}