{"id":2254,"date":"2025-10-12T20:34:15","date_gmt":"2025-10-12T18:34:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/?p=2254"},"modified":"2026-01-09T00:13:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T23:13:00","slug":"kinai-amerikai-osszeutkozes-fele-robogunk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/?p=2254","title":{"rendered":"K\u00ednai-amerikai \u00f6ssze\u00fctk\u00f6z\u00e9s fel\u00e9 robogunk?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A K\u00edna \u00e9s az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamok k\u00f6z\u00f6tti kapcsolatok \u00fajra egy <strong>konfrontat\u00edv<\/strong> <strong>szakaszba<\/strong> <strong>l\u00e9ptek<\/strong>. Donald Trump <strong>\u00fajabb v\u00e1mfenyeget\u00e9sei<\/strong> nem maradtak v\u00e1lasz n\u00e9lk\u00fcl, s b\u00e1r Peking szeretn\u00e9 elker\u00fclni a <strong>kereskedelmi \u00e9s v\u00e1mh\u00e1bor\u00fat<\/strong>, de az is vil\u00e1gos, hogy cseppet sem f\u00e9l t\u0151le.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Csou Po, a Csinghua Egyetem strat\u00e9giai kutat\u00f3ja szerint<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201e<strong>ha az USA ragaszkodik a strat\u00e9giai versenyhez, akkor K\u00edna is k\u00e9nytelen<\/strong> m\u00e9ly leveg\u0151t venni, \u00e9s <strong>azt mondani: rendben.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Visszafogott, de c\u00e9lzott v\u00e1lasz<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Friss elemz\u00e9sek szerint (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.guancha.cn\/ZhouBo3\/2025_10_12_792934_1.shtml\" title=\"\">1<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.guancha.cn\/Guanxin\/2025_10_11_792845.shtml\" title=\"\">2<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.guancha.cn\/ShenYi\/2025_10_11_792858.shtml\" title=\"\">3<\/a>) <strong>K\u00edna tudatosan ker\u00fcli az impulz\u00edv, eszkal\u00e1l\u00f3 v\u00e1laszokat<\/strong>. Kuan Hszin \u00fagy v\u00e9li, <strong>\u201eK\u00edna nem keresi a konfliktust, de nem is f\u00e9l t\u0151le\u201d<\/strong>, \u00e9s a v\u00e1laszai <strong>hideg fejjel v\u00e9giggondolt, szimmetrikus l\u00e9p\u00e9sek<\/strong>, mint p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul <strong>ritkaf\u00f6ldf\u00e9m-export korl\u00e1toz\u00e1sa<\/strong> vagy <strong>saj\u00e1t technol\u00f3giai kapacit\u00e1sainak fejleszt\u00e9se<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sen Ji, a Fudan Egyetem professzora pedig \u00fagy fogalmazott:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201eK\u00edna v\u00e1lasza el\u0151rel\u00e1that\u00f3, \u00e9s egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171en kisz\u00e1m\u00edtott.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A v\u00e1mokkal szemben <strong>szigor\u00fa viszonoss\u00e1gi elv<\/strong> \u00e9rv\u00e9nyes\u00fcl, \u00e9s K\u00edna <strong>nem fogadja el azt a modellt<\/strong>, ahol az USA <strong>el\u0151bb fenyeget, majd t\u00e1rgyal\u00e1s k\u00f6zben \u00fajra eszkal\u00e1l<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A v\u00e1mfegyver hat\u00e1stalans\u00e1ga<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump <strong>november 1-j\u00e9re<\/strong> belengetett <strong>100%-os v\u00e1mja<\/strong> nemcsak Pekingben, de <strong>a Wall Streeten is riadalmat keltett<\/strong>. A Nasdaq p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul <strong>3,56%-os zuhan\u00e1ssal z\u00e1rata a hetet<\/strong>, amely <strong>\u00e1prilis \u00f3ta a legnagyobb egynapos visszaes\u00e9s<\/strong> volt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kuan Hszin szerint:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201e<strong>A piac<\/strong> a l\u00e1b\u00e1val szavazott, \u00e9s <strong>bizalmatlans\u00e1g\u00e1t fejezte ki e politika ir\u00e1nt.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">R\u00e1ad\u00e1sul a v\u00e1mok <strong>val\u00f3j\u00e1ban nem a k\u00ednai c\u00e9geket, hanem az amerikai fogyaszt\u00f3kat terhelik<\/strong>, \u00e9s csak tov\u00e1bb n\u00f6velik az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1st. <strong>A nyeres\u00e9g politikai szinten is k\u00e9ts\u00e9ges<\/strong>, hiszen <strong>a bels\u0151 el\u00e9gedetlens\u00e9g hat\u00e1ssal lehet a 2026-os f\u00e9lid\u0151s v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sokon eredm\u00e9nyeire<\/strong> \u2013 figyelmeztetett Sen Ji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Nukle\u00e1ris elrettent\u00e9s<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Csou Po elemz\u00e9se egy <strong>k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen fontos strat\u00e9giai tanuls\u00e1gra<\/strong> is felh\u00edvja a figyelmet: <strong>az USA viselked\u00e9se a nukle\u00e1ris elrettent\u00e9s f\u00fcggv\u00e9nye<\/strong>. M\u00edg Oroszorsz\u00e1ggal szemben <strong>a Nyugat \u00f3vatos \u00e9s nem v\u00e1llal k\u00f6zvetlen konfront\u00e1ci\u00f3t<\/strong>, addig <strong>K\u00edna eset\u00e9ben m\u00e9g mindig lebegtetik a katonai beavatkoz\u00e1s lehet\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9t<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ez <strong>els\u0151re fenyeget\u0151en hangozhat<\/strong>, de val\u00f3j\u00e1ban <strong>egy realist\u00e1n megfogalmazott strat\u00e9giai tanuls\u00e1g<\/strong>, amely a <strong>biztons\u00e1gpolitikai aszimmetri\u00e1kra<\/strong> h\u00edvja fel a figyelmet nem sokkal azut\u00e1n, hogy Trump felvetette: az USA-nak vissza k\u00e9ne szereznie az afganiszt\u00e1ni Bagr\u00e1m l\u00e9gib\u00e1zis\u00e1t, mivel onnan b\u00e1rmikor csap\u00e1st m\u00e9rhet K\u00edn\u00e1ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Egy \u00faj egyens\u00faly keres\u00e9se<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00ednai elemz\u0151k szerint a kor\u00e1bbi <strong>\u201ekooper\u00e1ci\u00f3 minden\u00e1ron\u201d<\/strong> hely\u00e9t <strong>egy t\u00e1rgyal\u00e1sra nyitott, de elvi k\u00e9rd\u00e9sekben szil\u00e1rd hozz\u00e1\u00e1ll\u00e1s<\/strong> vette \u00e1t. A c\u00e9l <strong>egy olyan \u00faj egyens\u00faly, amelyben a verseny nem z\u00e1rja ki a p\u00e1rbesz\u00e9det<\/strong>, \u00e9s <strong>a strat\u00e9giai stabilit\u00e1st a k\u00f6lcs\u00f6n\u00f6s elrettent\u00e9s garant\u00e1lja<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eB\u00edzzunk, de besz\u00e9lj\u00fcnk\u201d \u2013 ahogy Csou Po parafraz\u00e1lta a hidegh\u00e1bor\u00fas \u201eTrust but verify\u201d elvet.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Versenyes egy\u00fctt\u00e9l\u00e9s vagy eszkal\u00e1ci\u00f3?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok kett\u0151sek. Ha a felek <strong>r\u00f6gz\u00edtik a hat\u00e1rokat \u00e9s vissza\u00e1ll\u00edtj\u00e1k a strat\u00e9giai kommunik\u00e1ci\u00f3s csatorn\u00e1kat<\/strong>, akkor <strong>egy stabil koegzisztencia<\/strong> alakulhat ki, amit azonban a verseny \u00e9s nem a partners\u00e9g hat\u00e1roz meg. Ha viszont <strong>a v\u00e1mh\u00e1bor\u00fas spir\u00e1l eszkal\u00e1l\u00f3dik, \u00e9s Tajvan \u00fcgy\u00e9ben sem siker\u00fcl stabilit\u00e1st teremteni<\/strong>, akkor <strong>egy \u00faj hidegh\u00e1bor\u00fas hangulat<\/strong> uralkodhat el a vil\u00e1gon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peking strat\u00e9gi\u00e1ja a <strong>defenz\u00edv realizmus<\/strong>, melynek c\u00e9lja <strong>elker\u00fclni a katonai \u00f6sszecsap\u00e1st, mik\u00f6zben nem adja fel a saj\u00e1t \u00e9rdekeit<\/strong>. Ez <strong>nem b\u00e9kejobb, de nem is revansista<\/strong> poz\u00edci\u00f3 \u2013 <strong>egy atipikus nagyhatalmi viselked\u00e9sforma<\/strong>, amelyre az USA-nak is \u00faj v\u00e1laszokat kell tal\u00e1lnia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A K\u00edna \u00e9s az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamok k\u00f6z\u00f6tti kapcsolatok \u00fajra egy konfrontat\u00edv szakaszba l\u00e9ptek. Donald Trump \u00fajabb v\u00e1mfenyeget\u00e9sei nem maradtak v\u00e1lasz n\u00e9lk\u00fcl, s b\u00e1r Peking szeretn\u00e9 elker\u00fclni a kereskedelmi \u00e9s v\u00e1mh\u00e1bor\u00fat, de az is vil\u00e1gos, hogy cseppet sem f\u00e9l t\u0151le. Csou Po, a Csinghua Egyetem strat\u00e9giai kutat\u00f3ja szerint \u201eha az USA ragaszkodik a strat\u00e9giai versenyhez, akkor [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2255,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[4558],"tags":[81,84,90,1010,236,47,144,48,379,80,140],"class_list":["post-2254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazdpol","tag-donald-trump","tag-egyesult-allamok","tag-fenyegetes","tag-hideghaboru","tag-kereskedelmi-haboru","tag-kina","tag-peking","tag-szankciok","tag-trump","tag-usa","tag-vamhaboru"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2254"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2256,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2254\/revisions\/2256"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}