{"id":3072,"date":"2026-03-10T21:46:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T20:46:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/?p=3072"},"modified":"2026-04-07T19:07:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T17:07:47","slug":"a-haboru-ara-globalis-lassulas-es-inflacio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/?p=3072","title":{"rendered":"A h\u00e1bor\u00fa \u00e1ra: Glob\u00e1lis lassul\u00e1s \u00e9s infl\u00e1ci\u00f3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00f6zel-keleti konfliktus <strong>jelent\u0151s kock\u00e1zatokat jelent a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9re \u00e9s az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3ra<\/strong> n\u00e9zve \u2013 der\u00fcl ki vezet\u0151 elemz\u0151int\u00e9zetek friss \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9seib\u0151l. A JPMorgan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kommersant.ru\/doc\/8497757?from=main\" title=\"\">szerint<\/a> a glob\u00e1lis GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9s 2026 els\u0151 fel\u00e9ben <strong>2%-ra lassulhat<\/strong> a kor\u00e1bban v\u00e1rt 2,6% helyett, mik\u00f6zben a glob\u00e1lis infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 <strong>4%-ra emelkedhet<\/strong> (az el\u0151z\u0151 becsl\u00e9s 3% volt). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az \u201em\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt&#8221; forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv 80 doll\u00e1ros Brent-\u00e1tlag\u00e1rat felt\u00e9telez az els\u0151 f\u00e9l\u00e9vben, amely a m\u00e1sodik f\u00e9l\u00e9vben 60 doll\u00e1rra s\u00fcllyedhet. Elh\u00faz\u00f3d konfliktus \u00e9s az Ormuzi-szoros tart\u00f3s blok\u00e1dja eset\u00e9n azonban az elemz\u0151knek alaposan fel\u00fcl kell vizsg\u00e1lniuk el\u0151rejelz\u00e9seiket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Az USA stagfl\u00e1ci\u00f3s csapd\u00e1ban<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamok sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra a konfliktus <strong>egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171en infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s kock\u00e1zatot \u00e9s roml\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gi kil\u00e1t\u00e1sokat<\/strong> jelent. Az ING k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szai szerint az olaj\u00e1rak emelked\u00e9se <strong>0,3\u20130,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal<\/strong> toldhatja meg az amerikai infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t, amely \u00edgy el\u00e9rheti a 3%-ot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fed kamatpolitik\u00e1j\u00e1val kapcsolatos v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok is \u00e1trendez\u0151dtek: az els\u0151 kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st a piacok m\u00e1r nem j\u00faniusra, hanem <strong>legkor\u00e1bban szeptemberre<\/strong> val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edtik, a kamatszint addig <strong>3,5\u20133,75% k\u00f6z\u00f6tt maradhat<\/strong>. A helyzetet tov\u00e1bb bonyol\u00edtja a munkaer\u0151piac h\u0171l\u00e9se: febru\u00e1rban <strong>92 ezer munkahely sz\u0171nt meg<\/strong>, mik\u00f6zben a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1s 60 ezres b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s volt. <strong>A munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta 4,4%-ra n\u0151tt.<\/strong> Mindez a <strong>stagfl\u00e1ci\u00f3 kock\u00e1zat\u00e1t<\/strong> er\u0151s\u00edti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Eur\u00f3pa k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen kitett<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az EU gazdas\u00e1ga az energiaimport-f\u00fcgg\u0151s\u00e9g miatt <strong>a legs\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9kenyebb<\/strong> a konfliktus k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyeivel szemben. A holland TTF g\u00e1zpiacon az \u00e1prilisi hat\u00e1rid\u0151s \u00e1r <strong>69 eur\u00f3\/MWh-ra sz\u00f6k\u00f6tt<\/strong> a m\u00falt heti 54 eur\u00f3r\u00f3l. Az Oxford Economics elemz\u0151i szerint az energiasokk <strong>0,5\u20130,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal<\/strong> gyors\u00edthatja az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t (k\u00f6zel 2,9%-ra), a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s pedig <strong>2% al\u00e1 cs\u00faszhat<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>K\u00edn\u00e1nak id\u0151t adnak a pufferek<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00edna, a vil\u00e1g legnagyobb olajimport\u0151re, amelynek beszerz\u00e9sei <strong>mintegy 40%-ban<\/strong> a Perzsa-\u00f6b\u00f6l t\u00e9rs\u00e9g\u00e9b\u0151l \u00e9rkeznek, felhalmozott tartal\u00e9kai r\u00e9v\u00e9n egyel\u0151re m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelheti az energiasokk hat\u00e1s\u00e1t. Ugyanakkor tart\u00f3san magas nyersanyag\u00e1rak eset\u00e9n a nyom\u00e1s az iparban is \u00e9rezhet\u0151v\u00e9 v\u00e1lik. A <strong>2026-os GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s 0,2\u20130,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal<\/strong> cs\u00f6kkenhet az IMF \u00e9s a Vil\u00e1gbank kor\u00e1bbi 4,5\u20134,6%-os becsl\u00e9seihez k\u00e9pest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A k\u00f6zel-keleti konfliktus jelent\u0151s kock\u00e1zatokat jelent a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9re \u00e9s az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3ra n\u00e9zve \u2013 der\u00fcl ki vezet\u0151 elemz\u0151int\u00e9zetek friss \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9seib\u0151l. A JPMorgan szerint a glob\u00e1lis GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9s 2026 els\u0151 fel\u00e9ben 2%-ra lassulhat a kor\u00e1bban v\u00e1rt 2,6% helyett, mik\u00f6zben a glob\u00e1lis infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 4%-ra emelkedhet (az el\u0151z\u0151 becsl\u00e9s 3% volt). Az \u201em\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt&#8221; forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv 80 doll\u00e1ros Brent-\u00e1tlag\u00e1rat felt\u00e9telez az [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"8","parallax":"1","layout":"no-sidebar-narrow","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"topbottom","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","show_comment_section":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":{"override_bookmark_button":"0","override_show_bookmark_button":"0"},"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4558],"tags":[84,262,498,204,371,343,206,153,47,691,904,919,4630,80],"class_list":["post-3072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazdpol","tag-egyesult-allamok","tag-europa","tag-gazdasagi-novekedes","tag-globalis-gazdasag","tag-haboru","tag-inflacio","tag-iran","tag-izrael","tag-kina","tag-koolaj","tag-munkanelkuliseg","tag-olaj","tag-stagflacio","tag-usa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3072"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3072\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3074,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3072\/revisions\/3074"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}