{"id":4619,"date":"2026-07-21T15:47:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T13:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/?p=4619"},"modified":"2026-07-25T10:35:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T08:35:29","slug":"a-120-dollaros-olajar-sem-kizart-a-kozel-keleti-valsag-miatt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/?p=4619","title":{"rendered":"A 120 doll\u00e1ros olaj\u00e1r sem kiz\u00e1rt a k\u00f6zel-keleti v\u00e1ls\u00e1g miatt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00f6zel-keleti konfliktus \u00fajabb ki\u00e9lez\u0151d\u00e9se meredek olaj\u00e1r-emelked\u00e9st <a href=\"https:\/\/iz.ru\/2135641\/lina-magomedova\/ceny-na-neft-prevysili-91-za-barrel\" title=\"\">ind\u00edtott el<\/a>. <strong>A Brent \u00e1ra j\u00falius 6. \u00f3ta 27 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u0151tt<\/strong>, j\u00falius 20-\u00e1n pedig r\u00f6vid id\u0151re a hord\u00f3nk\u00e9nti 91,4 doll\u00e1rt is meghaladta. A piaci szerepl\u0151k egyre nagyobb kock\u00e1zati fel\u00e1rat \u00e9p\u00edtenek be az \u00e1rakba, mik\u00f6zben az elemz\u0151k m\u00e1r a 100\u2013120 doll\u00e1ros \u00e1rszint lehet\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9t m\u00e9rlegelik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Visszat\u00e9rt a kock\u00e1zati fel\u00e1r<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Brent j\u00fanius k\u00f6zep\u00e9n m\u00e9g 91 doll\u00e1r k\u00f6r\u00fcl mozgott, majd egy h\u00f3nap alatt 71,5 doll\u00e1rig esett vissza. A trendet az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamok \u00e9s Ir\u00e1n k\u00f6z\u00f6tti harcok \u00fajabb fordulata v\u00e1ltoztatta meg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Teher\u00e1n j\u00falius 12-\u00e9n bejelentette a Hormuzi-szoros lez\u00e1r\u00e1s\u00e1t. Az ir\u00e1ni Forradalmi G\u00e1rda k\u00e9s\u0151bb k\u00e9t, a szoroson \u00e1thaladni pr\u00f3b\u00e1l\u00f3 olajsz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3 haj\u00f3 felrobbant\u00e1s\u00e1r\u00f3l, valamint tov\u00e1bbi n\u00e9gy haj\u00f3 elleni rak\u00e9ta- \u00e9s dr\u00f3nt\u00e1mad\u00e1sr\u00f3l sz\u00e1molt be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A Hormuzi-szoroson a h\u00e1bor\u00fa el\u0151tt a vil\u00e1g k\u0151olaj- \u00e9s g\u00e1zsz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sainak mintegy \u00f6t\u00f6de haladt kereszt\u00fcl.<\/strong> A haj\u00f3forgalom megb\u00e9nul\u00e1sa ez\u00e9rt \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban is jelent\u0151s \u00e1rn\u00f6vel\u0151 t\u00e9nyez\u0151.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A 100 doll\u00e1r a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 hat\u00e1r<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az elemz\u0151k szerint a 93 doll\u00e1ros \u00e1rszint \u00e1tt\u00f6r\u00e9se \u00fajabb gyors emelked\u00e9st ind\u00edthat el. T\u00f6bb orsz\u00e1g strat\u00e9giai k\u00e9szletei m\u00e1r a konfliktus kor\u00e1bbi szakasz\u00e1ban megcsappantak, ez\u00e9rt egy m\u00e1sodik olaj\u00e1r-rali sor\u00e1n a Brent \u00e1ra ak\u00e1r <strong>110 doll\u00e1r f\u00f6l\u00e9 is ker\u00fclhet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A 120 doll\u00e1ros hord\u00f3nk\u00e9nti \u00e1r azonban val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg csak s\u00falyosabb forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv eset\u00e9n v\u00e1lna tart\u00f3ss\u00e1. Ehhez a sza\u00fadi, em\u00edrs\u00e9gekbeli, kuvaiti vagy ir\u00e1ni olajtermel\u0151 \u00e9s sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si infrastrukt\u00fara jelent\u0151s megrong\u00e1l\u00f3d\u00e1s\u00e1ra, illetve egy elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 sz\u00e1razf\u00f6ldi hadm\u0171veletre lenne sz\u00fcks\u00e9g.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u00dajabb szoros ker\u00fclhet vesz\u00e9lybe<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A kock\u00e1zatokat n\u00f6veli, hogy a jemeni h\u00faszik tengeri blok\u00e1dot hirdettek Sza\u00fad-Ar\u00e1bia ellen. Amennyiben megpr\u00f3b\u00e1ln\u00e1k lez\u00e1rni a B\u00e1b el-Mandeb-szorost, vagy csap\u00e1st m\u00e9rn\u00e9nek a sza\u00fadi Janbu kik\u00f6t\u0151j\u00e9re, az tov\u00e1bb sz\u0171k\u00edten\u00e9 a vil\u00e1gpiaci k\u00edn\u00e1latot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ebben az esetben egyszerre ker\u00fclne vesz\u00e9lybe a Hormuzi-szoros \u00e9s a V\u00f6r\u00f6s-tenger d\u00e9li bej\u00e1rata<\/strong>, vagyis a k\u00f6zel-keleti olajexport k\u00e9t legfontosabb tengeri \u00fatvonala.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 bor\u00fal\u00e1t\u00f3 elemz\u0151k szerint ugyanakkor m\u00e9g a 100 doll\u00e1ros \u00e1r sem tekinthet\u0151 biztosnak. Ha a felek a k\u00f6zelj\u00f6v\u0151ben a fesz\u00fclts\u00e9g cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s\u00e9nek jeleit mutatj\u00e1k, vagy siker\u00fcl r\u00e9szben helyre\u00e1ll\u00edtani a biztons\u00e1gos haj\u00f3z\u00e1st, a jegyz\u00e9sek gyorsan visszaeshetnek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Oroszorsz\u00e1g j\u00f3l j\u00e1rhat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Brent dr\u00e1gul\u00e1sa az orosz olajfajt\u00e1k \u00e1r\u00e1t is felfel\u00e9 h\u00fazza. J\u00falius 20-\u00e1n az Urals hord\u00f3nk\u00e9nti \u00e1ra 67 doll\u00e1r k\u00f6r\u00fcl alakult, mik\u00f6zben az orosz olajat tov\u00e1bbra is jelent\u0151s, \u00e1ltal\u00e1ban 20\u201325 doll\u00e1ros diszkonttal \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edtik a Brenthez k\u00e9pest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ha a Brent tart\u00f3san 80\u201390 doll\u00e1r k\u00f6z\u00f6tt marad, az Urals \u00e1ra v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an 55\u201375 doll\u00e1r k\u00f6z\u00f6tt alakulhat. <strong>Egy 120 doll\u00e1ros Brent eset\u00e9n az orosz olaj \u00e1ra ak\u00e1r 95\u2013100 doll\u00e1rra is emelkedhet.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ez jelent\u0151sen n\u00f6veln\u00e9 az orosz k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9s olaj- \u00e9s g\u00e1zbev\u00e9teleit. A 2026-os b\u00fcdzs\u00e9t 59 doll\u00e1ros Urals-\u00e1rral tervezt\u00e9k, mik\u00f6zben j\u00faniusban az \u00e1tlag\u00e1r m\u00e1r 63,5 doll\u00e1r volt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A h\u00e1bor\u00fa \u00e1razza a piacot<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az olaj\u00e1r k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 mozg\u00e1s\u00e1t els\u0151sorban nem a hagyom\u00e1nyos keresleti \u00e9s k\u00edn\u00e1lati folyamatok, hanem a katonai esem\u00e9nyek hat\u00e1rozz\u00e1k meg. A piac azt figyeli, meddig marad lez\u00e1rva a Hormuzi-szoros, bel\u00e9pnek-e teljes er\u0151vel a h\u00faszik a konfliktusba, \u00e9s \u00e9rik-e t\u00e1mad\u00e1sok a t\u00e9rs\u00e9g legfontosabb energetikai l\u00e9tes\u00edtm\u00e9nyeit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Min\u00e9l hosszabb ideig tart a bizonytalans\u00e1g, ann\u00e1l nagyobb es\u00e9llyel k\u00f6zel\u00edti meg a Brent a 100 doll\u00e1ros, s\u00falyosabb eszkal\u00e1ci\u00f3 eset\u00e9n pedig ak\u00e1r a 120 doll\u00e1ros szintet.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A k\u00f6zel-keleti konfliktus \u00fajabb ki\u00e9lez\u0151d\u00e9se meredek olaj\u00e1r-emelked\u00e9st ind\u00edtott el. A Brent \u00e1ra j\u00falius 6. \u00f3ta 27 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u0151tt, j\u00falius 20-\u00e1n pedig r\u00f6vid id\u0151re a hord\u00f3nk\u00e9nti 91,4 doll\u00e1rt is meghaladta. A piaci szerepl\u0151k egyre nagyobb kock\u00e1zati fel\u00e1rat \u00e9p\u00edtenek be az \u00e1rakba, mik\u00f6zben az elemz\u0151k m\u00e1r a 100\u2013120 doll\u00e1ros \u00e1rszint lehet\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9t m\u00e9rlegelik. Visszat\u00e9rt a kock\u00e1zati fel\u00e1r A [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4621,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[4558],"tags":[5257,84,680,211,206,939,691,5256,46,213,920],"class_list":["post-4619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazdpol","tag-brent","tag-egyesult-allamok","tag-hormuzi-szoros","tag-huszik","tag-iran","tag-irani-haboru","tag-koolaj","tag-olajar","tag-oroszorszag","tag-szaud-arabia","tag-vilaggazdasag"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4619"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4619\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4620,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4619\/revisions\/4620"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ujvilagtrend.hu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}